Peace in the Pipeline

Chances and challenges for oil exploration in Sudan		Download a pdf version of the full Exploration Logistics Group news article.
The signing of the peace agreement between North and South Sudan is being seen as one of the best opportunities in recent years to halt Africa's longest running civil war, with substantial international pressure being applied to all parties to uphold their agreements.

After 21 years of fighting, the historic peace treaty signed in Kenya in January between the government of President Omar al Bashir in the North and the Sudanese People's Liberation Army (SPLA) led by John Garang in the South, holds the first realistic prospect for an independent Southern state and the ongoing development of the whole country. A land where 35 million people lead a largely subsistence existence with minimal infrastructure, it's a region which could transform rapidly, with the promise of significant aid for reconstruction following a United Nations appeal for US$600 million just for this purpose.

At the heart of this growth is Sudan's mushrooming oil industry. Reserves have been estimated at 563 million barrels, an economic lifeline for one of the world's poorest countries. Following the completion of the first oil export line in 1999, oil already accounts for 73% of total export earnings. Under the peace agreement Sudan's new oil wealth, predicted to reach 500,000 billion barrels per day (bbl/day) in 2005, will be split equally between North and South, ensuring a significant flow of funds into the hugely underdeveloped South.

As a result, opportunities for stability and growth in oil exports are looking more realistic. There are predictions of a fivefold increase in production over the next ten years. A significant number of international companies are already actively involved in oil development, both in exploration and the supply of equipment and other essential resources. In June 2004, the Government announced the first oil exploration in North Sudan in the Jazira region of North Khartoum. Plans are being discussed to export to fellow members of Comesa, The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa, and there is talk of a pipeline to link oil fields through to the port of Mombassa. United States (US) economic sanctions have prohibited investment by US companies but in April 2004, the decision by President Bush not to impose additional sanctions in support of the peace process was perhaps the first indication of a policy shift. Opportunities for exploration clearly exist but to bring them to fruition, exploration and construction companies will have to surmount a range of health and safety challenges brought about, not just by political unrest, but also because of the varied and challenging topography and economic climate.

Sudan is the largest and most diverse country in Africa with deserts and arid wastelands in the North, tropical swamps in the South and mountain ranges in the East and West. At 2,505,810km², it's ten times the size of the United Kingdom, but with just two thirds of the population and a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita of just $330. Many of Sudan's oil reserves are located in the South where the topography makes exploration and production challenging. The Nuba Mountains have some of the greatest scenery of Sudan, small green valleys and high mountains, but no roads. In fact Sudan has barely 12,000km of highway and less than half is paved. The Sudd Swamp is named from the Arabic 'sadd' or 'barrier'. It's a huge environmentally sensitive wetland spanning South Central Sudan expanding to 130,000km² in the rainy season. Sudan is a challenge for any organisation needing to transport people or equipment safely and off-road and desert driving skills will be essential in moving poeple and equipment almost anywhere in the country.

Perhaps the greatest concern to any incoming organisation is a more deadly legacy of 50 years of bitter fighting. Somewhere between 500,000 and two million landmines have been laid which ranks Sudan as one of the ten most heavily mined countries in the world, severely hampering the activites of international aid agencies. The UN has recognised funding mine clearance as crucial in contributing to the peace process and UNMAS, the United Nations Mine Action Service, is currently seeking $30 million for mine action activity across the country.

E&P companies have to contend with some of the worst land mine contamination in the oil rich areas of South Sudan, where both the Sudanese Government and the SPLA have planted landmines. Through it's Zimbabwean operation, MineTech International, Exploration Logistics Group is recognised for its leading role in mine clearance safety and education in both the commercial and humanitarian sectors. Highly experienced in post-conflict and conflict environments, MineTech teams have been supporting humanitarian EOD and mine clearance projects in Iraq since May 2003 and have also carried out some initial level 2 survey and clearance work for oil drilling projects in Southern Sudan. As a result, Business Development Manager Edward Cross doesn't underestimate the scale of the mine clearance problem facing the region.

He explains, "Sudan's mine contamination is not the result of major tactical minefields of the sort facing many other countries dealing with the legacy of recent landmines." Areas of mines have been laid by the Government around garrison towns in rebel areas and anti-tank mines are scattered in locations between rebel strongholds. Recent estimates by the United Nations put some 155 communities and 4270km² of land at risk in South Sudan alone. In the oil sites, the problem is particularly acute, with Sudan's Emergency Mine Action Report identifying 276 dangerous mine areas spanning key oil sites in Equitoria, Bahr Al Ghazal and through into the Upper Nile.

The prevalence of mines on South Sudan's unpaved roads has forced many aid organisations to transport by air. Of most concern in a country desperate for food security is the effect landmines have had on agriculture, when farmers become afraid to work land or are forced to avoid essential cattle pastures.

With the exact location and number of landmines in Southern Sudan still unknown, clearance and survey efforts remain a health and safety priority. MineTech's experience will be essential for seismic teams needing onsite manual and mechanical mine detection and clearance services and cultivating better awareness of the risks posed to staff by mines.

The problems in Sudan are clearly far from over. The deaths of 70,000 people in Darfur, currently excluded from the peace process, and the displacement of a further 1.5 million is widely considered to be today's worst humanitarian crisis. There are also concerns as to whether the two leaders will have the vision to ensure peace in their region, whether John Garang will create equality and harmony in the South or instead become a divisive tribal leader. In a time of transition however, there is hope that an aggressive mine clearance programme will undoubtedly make a significant contribution. The peace agreement shares the oil wealth, establishes separate monetary and government systems in the North and South and aims to resolve the whole with a country-wide referendum in six years. With peace in the pipeline, we can expect a rapid increase in foreign investment and development.